Is Europe really facing a huge energy crisis? In fact, through half a year's efforts, the supply of natural gas in Europe has improved significantly. Even if Russia completely cut off the supply to Europe (Ukraine pipeline), Europe can easily survive this winter (88% of the inventory). Due to diversified supply, except for liquefied gas in the United States, liquefied gas in Qatar, pipeline gas in Algeria, and pipeline gas in Norway, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan in Western Asian countries have increased their supply.

According to the new model, Europe is fully capable of cutting off Russia's natural gas and completely decoupling in December. Therefore, the European electricity price (Dutch TTF) and the British natural gas price have fallen sharply in the last week, and have fallen back to the pre war level. If we still stay in the thinking of the European crisis, we may not be able to describe it with "hindsight".

At present, the biggest problem is that even if Europe can get enough natural gas supply in the next few years, the cost is at least three times higher than that before the Russia Ukraine war. The transportation cost is too high. The price of industrial natural gas is far higher than that of Asian countries. The manufacturing cost will lose its advantage, and the competitiveness will be greatly reduced.